SHFE tin fluctuated around the 270,000 mark, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined awaiting direction [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on September 9, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) moved sideways around the 270,000 yuan/mt level, briefly dipping but finding temporary support, ultimately settling near 269,690 yuan/mt by the midday close, down 0.52% from the previous session's settlement price.

From a macro perspective, intertwined bullish and bearish factors created two-way volatility for tin prices. The US August non-farm payrolls data significantly missed expectations (rising only 22,000), with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%, strengthening market expectations for a September US Fed interest rate cut (even pricing in a 50-basis-point aggressive cut). The weakening US dollar index theoretically supported metal prices. However, heightened recession concerns weighed on risk appetite, shifting market focus toward demand prospects rather than liquidity easing. Domestically, China's August exports fell short of expectations while the trade surplus exceeded forecasts, maintaining some external demand boost. Although the rollout of stable-growth measures for the electronics manufacturing sector could enhance medium and long-term tin application potential in semiconductors and AI, Trump's proposed semiconductor import tariffs negatively impacted the sector, temporarily suppressing tin demand.

LME tin contract prices showed concurrent weakness, halting a five-day losing streak but struggling to rebound. Key technical support for LME tin stands at $34,000, with potential further declines if breached.

Short-term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain sideways movement, with the core fluctuation range projected at 266,000-274,000 yuan/mt, as upside remains constrained by weak demand and inventory pressure.